August 13, 2020

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Change Research Poll: Trump Narrows the Gap in Battleground States

Jul 30, 2020 | ,

Breitbart

President Donald Trump has narrowed the gap with presumptive Democrat nominee Joe Biden in six key battleground states, according to a poll released by Change Research/CNBC on Wednesday.

“Biden leads by 9 points in the national ballot and by 3 points in the battleground (48% to 45%). While the battleground ballot has tightened, Biden continues to lead across each battleground state,” Change Research said in a statement accompanying the poll results.

The battleground poll was conducted in six key battleground states President Trump won in 2016 (Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin) among 2,565 likely voters between July 24 and July 26 and has a margin of error of 1.94 percent. About 400 likely voters responded to the poll in each battleground state, indicating the margin of error for state-level results are higher.

The national poll was described by Change Research as a “companion national survey of 1,039 likely voters” and was also conducted between July 24 and July 26 and has a margin of error of 3.04 percent.

Biden still leads Trump narrowly in each of the six key battleground states, but in four of those states (Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania), Biden’s lead appears to be within the assumed margin of error for the portion of the battleground poll conducted in those states. In two of those states (Michigan and Wisconsin), Biden’s lead is barely beyond the assumed margin of error.

Trump’s improved status among likely voters in these states is particularly of note when the results of the Change Research/CNBC poll released on Wednesday are compared with the results of the same poll conducted between July 10 and July 12 and released two weeks earlier on July 15. That poll found that Biden led Trump by ten points nationally and by six points in the six battleground states.

In Arizona, Biden leads Trump by two points: 47 percent to 45 percent. Trump trailed by six points in the July 15 Change Research/CNBC poll, so he has picked up a net four points in Arizona in two weeks.

In Pennsylvania, Biden leads Trump by two points: 48 percent to 46 percent. Trump trailed by eight points in the July 15 Change Research/CNBC poll, so he has picked up a net six points in Pennsylvania in two weeks.

In Florida, Biden leads Trump by three points: 48 percent to 45 percent. Trump trailed by seven points in the July 15 Change Research/CNBC poll, so he has picked up a net four points in Florida in two weeks.

In North Carolina, Biden leads Trump by three points: 49 percent to 46 percent. Trump trailed by one point in the July 15 Change Research/CNBC poll, so he has dropped up a net two points in North Carolina in two weeks.

In Michigan, Biden leads Trump by four points: 46 percent to 42 percent. Trump trailed by six points in the July 15 Change Research/CNBC poll, so he has picked up a net two points in Michigan in two weeks.

In Wisconsin, Biden leads Trump by five points: 48 percent to 43 percent. Trump trailed by six points in the July 15 Change Research/CNBC poll, so he has picked up a net one point in Wisconsin in two weeks.

Trump has also gained in all six of these battleground states when compared to other polls released this month, as Breitbart News reported on July 8:

Trump won 306 electoral college votes on Election Day 2016, 36 more than the 270 needed to win the presidency. (Two faithless electors in Texas brought his final electoral college tally to 304 when the votes were cast during a joint session of Congress in early January 2017.)

Battleground state polls in six states Trump won in 2016 that have a total of 101 electoral college votes (Florida-29, Pennsylvania-20, Wisconsin-10, North Carolina-15, Arizona-11, Michigan-16) currently paint a gloomy picture for his reelection prospects in the November 3 general election less than four months from now.

Trump trails Biden in all six states according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, though it is with within the margin of error in two states (North Carolina, where Trump trails by three points, and Arizona, where he trails by 3.5 points), and slightly beyond the margin of error in the four other battleground states (Florida, where Trump trails by five points, Wisconsin, where he trails by 6.5 points, Michigan, where he trails by 7.5 points, and Pennsylvania, where he trails by 6.5 points).

With less than 100 days until Election Day in November, the battleground state results from the poll released by Change Research/CNBC on Wednesday give supporters of President Trump reason for optimism.

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